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It was a lot. Hand-wringing about whether the world can get enough action to prevent catastrophic global warming. There’s definitely something to be done there – we’ve spent the last several decades kicking the can on the road at every opportunity.
Well, here it is again, again the cancer is ahead of us and the end of the road is fast approaching.
Lucky for me, I’m optimistic. I think we’re still in a world of pain, and maybe we’ll have to rely on some weird technology like fusion power and direct air capture to pull ourselves out of the brink. But in my opinion, when the chips are down, humans tend to pull in.
If we use computing and software as a guide, we should expect to see a nearly fivefold increase in capital over the next 30 years.
That’s why I think many of the gloom-and-doom scenarios around climate technology investments tend to be overly pessimistic. Take the forecasts of the International Energy Agency, which has been downplaying the growth of solar power for years. The agency has since added better models to its toolkit, but he and others still make predictions that remain overly pessimistic.
In fact, renewable energy and other climate technologies may follow the same adoption curve as other industries. Given how far-reaching and profound the impacts and benefits of climate technology can be, and the real prospect of Armageddon if we do nothing, an accelerated version may even follow.
To see how climate technology is far ahead of today’s predictions, you only have to look back to 1970, when the computer revolution began.
Descriptive trends
The overall investment trend in the computer and telecommunications space over the past 50 years has been enormous. But that’s on top of the significant growth that happened in the early years of simple analytical papers. It also failed to capture key technological advances that spurred widespread adoption.
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