Monkey disease may be on the decline in the United States, but health officials are urging caution.

More than three months after the start of the U.S. monkeypox outbreak, there’s a welcome phrase coming from health officials leading the nation’s response: cautious optimism.

The change in tone reflects “recent signs that growth is slowing,” says A CDC technical report It was released on Thursday. These symptoms are particularly visible in some of the major cities where the virus hit early, such as New York City, Chicago and San Francisco.

Federal officials cautioned that it was too soon to make a statement that the country had turned a corner. And they are spreading the monkey disease vaccine campaign – sending thousands of vaccine doses This Labor Day weekend To attend gatherings such as Southern Decadence in New Orleans, Atlanta Black Pride and Pride in Oakland, gay, bisexual and queer people — especially men who have sex with men — are more likely to be exposed and infected. Virus.

Still, the slowdown in some parts of the U.S. — combined with data on how those at high risk can protect themselves and get vaccinated — are promising signs.

“Our numbers are still increasing. [but] Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told reporters on August 26 that the growth rate is low. We really hope that more of our harm reduction messages and vaccines are getting out there. to make”

Based on an analysis of NPR data, the number of reported cases has been trending since mid-August. CDC released Wednesday. Overall, the 7-day average from August 10 to August 26 decreased by 20%, and the number of new cases has been decreasing in recent days.

However, health officials warn that delays in data reporting could provide an incomplete picture of the disease in recent weeks, making it difficult to know if cases are truly at their peak.

and notes Anne RimonAccording to a UCLA epidemiologist who has studied monkeypox for years, providers and patients should be careful and stop testing, cases could rise again. Taking the properties of reduction.

“We need to carefully monitor the data and continue to push forward to increase testing, increase access to care, and ensure everyone at risk has access to the vaccine,” she said.

In big cities, cases are reduced

In New York City – one of the epicenters of the outbreak – the number of new people infected with the virus dropped by 50% from late July to late August. San Francisco health officials are also slowing the rate of new cases.

“I’m cautiously optimistic,” he says. Dr. Susan Phillips“But we know it’s going to take a lot of work and effort to continue that downward curve and make sure that cases continue to decrease,” said the San Francisco City and County health officer.

In other cities too, the picture is improving. Houston And Chicago Local health officials say there are signs that infections are slowing.

Jana Kerins, medical director of the Chicago Department of Public Health, said key metrics such as the average number of cases and the doubling time for cases have declined in the past two weeks. “I’m not sure we’re ready to say that this epidemic is really ending, but all of these things are encouraging,” Kerins said.

The changes will follow Modeling is released By the end of August, the national epidemic was on the wane.

“We are seeing significant signs of a slowdown for at least the next four weeks and the forecasts suggest that this is going in the right direction,” he said. Gerardo Chowell-PuenteA professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at Georgia State University, modeling simian disease.

“The CDC’s projections are consistent with projections that the incidence of monkeypox in the United States will continue to grow very slowly over the next two to four weeks,” agency staff wrote. Technical report It was released on Thursday.

The decline in US units mirrors what is happening in some European countries where the virus was detected a few weeks ago. In the UK and Germany, daily case counts have fallen steadily since late July. The number of new cases has increased in several other countries, including the Netherlands and Italy.

Behavioral change is helping.

Given the size and diversity of the US, there is still uncertainty about how the epidemic will play out in different parts of the country, he notes Caitlin RiversEpidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University

“Case counts in populous states such as Texas, California and New York that were at the beginning of the outbreak are declining as other states such as Oregon, Virginia and Indiana begin to pick up steam,” she wrote. Collection post Friday.

Still, infectious disease experts attribute the local and regional slowdown to efforts to change behavior among gay, bisexual and men who have sex with men in those areas — a group that accounts for the majority of cases.

“Most of us who work on this disease are absolutely convinced that much of the reduction in public health is due to behavioral change,” he says. Dr Jay Varma, Director of the Cornell Epidemic Prevention and Response Center at Will Cornell Medicine.

currently Around 80% Monkey diseases in the United States are associated with sexual activity, Thursday’s technical report. And data published in the CDC’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Aug. 26 show that gay and straight communities are improving their sexual behavior to prevent shingles.

in An online survey50% of the respondents said that they have “reduced the number of sexual partners, one-time sexual intercourse”. [or] Use of dating apps due to monkeypox epidemic.” Accompanying Modeling study According to the release by the CDC, “a 40% reduction in sexual intercourse at one time can slow the spread of gonorrhea and reduce the percentage of infected people” by about 30%.

“This means that LGBTQIA+ people are taking steps to reduce their risk, and it’s working,” said Dr. Demetrius Daskalakis, the White House’s deputy coordinator for the monkey disease response. Press release August 26

He says it’s not entirely surprising that the virus is slowing down in America, as it did in Europe Dr. Jeffrey KlausnerProfessor of Medicine and Infectious Diseases, Population and Public Health Sciences at the University of Southern California Keck School of Medicine.

“Most cities will see a decline in cases — and that decline may not be as rapid or as steep as the climb, Klauner says.

Klauner explains that the monkey disease persists in some relatively small sexual networks – which makes it difficult to protect against the virus as vaccination increases, people develop immunity and those at high risk change their behavior.

“People who are worried about the spread of infection on college campuses and daycares and other places where there’s personal contact, that’s not happening right now,” he said.

Uncertainty remains

But other experts aren’t so optimistic about the state of the epidemic — at least not yet.

“It’s great to see some declines,” said UCLA’s Rimoin.

Health officials have urged members of affected communities to take precautions – reducing the number of sexual partners and dressing up at parties, festivals and raves to curb the spread of the virus.

Daskalakis “Let me be clear,” he said on August 26. Advice on how to reduce risk Exposure to monkeypox is now, not forever, and is an important part of public health and community response as we provide emergency vaccines to control this outbreak.

Around 350,000 monkeypox vaccines Reported to CDC.

Still, in 2010, There is no solid real-world data on how well the rabies vaccine, approved by the Food and Drug Administration in 2019, protects against disease and transmission. Further complicating the picture is the vaccine shortage, which has led the Biden administration to adopt a new strategy of providing vaccines domestically to stretch the supply.

“Our laboratory data on the vaccine suggests that it will be very effective in humans,” says Varma. But what we know medically, we won’t know for sure until we see what happens in the real world..”

NPR’s Michaeleen Doucleff contributed to this report.

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