Expanded immersive experiences, accelerated artificial intelligence, and optimized technology delivery are the three themes covering the 2022 Gartner Hype Cycle for emerging technologies products and services.
Gartner has charted the 25 technologies it expects to have the greatest business and social impact in the next 10 years and will help IT leaders deliver on digital business transformation.
The development of the technologies is plotted on a bell curve which shows how the expectation of technology (the Y axis) changes over time (the X axis) from inception to adoption. The stages of the announcements begin with a burst of creativity, lead to a peak of deflated expectations, then to despair, and finally to a plateau of knowledge and productivity. According to this year’s graph, almost all of the 25 technologies are still in the first two stages.
Gartner sees the theme of developing and expanding immersive experiences playing out in digital twins, virtual spaces and cryptocurrencies. A digital twin of a customer or user that can mimic and predict customer behavior can help organizations improve customer experience and support other digital products and services.
Other technologies that enable immersive experiences include decentralized identity, in which users can control their identity through digital wallets or blockchain applications. Digital or virtual people, immutable tokens and metaverses fall into this theme as do internal talent marketplaces, which match employees to projects with no human involvement. The Web3 technology stack will be essential for decentralized web applications that allow users to control their own identity and data.
The second theme of accelerated AI appears in self-managing physical or software systems that have autonomy, agency, and learning capabilities. Within five to 10 years, autonomous systems will “morph into organizations,” Gartner said. Examples of such technologies include AI that understands cause-and-effect relationships, machine learning-based code generation tools, and AI-augmented design for user flows, patterns, and content and presentation layers.
Gartner’s third theme, Optimized Technology Expertise, looks at product or service developer communities and the platforms they use. Cloud data ecosystems, for example, provide an environment that supports diverse data workloads, streamlined provisioning, and streamlined operations. Some of the technologies in this category include AI-enhanced finOps and cloud services that deliver sustainable benefits in economic, environmental and social systems. Another emerging technology within this theme is data observability, the ability to understand the health of an organization’s information ecosystem by continuously monitoring, monitoring, alerting, analyzing, and identifying problems.
According to the chart, decentralized identity, NFTs and cloud data ecosystems are far apart. Technologies that have been in production for more than 10 years include Cyber Security Mesh Architecture, MetaVas, and Digital People.
“All of these technologies are in their early stages, but some of them are still in their infancy, and there’s a lot of uncertainty about how they’ll evolve,” said Melissa Davis, VP analyst at Gartner. “Embryonic technologies present greater risks for deployment but greater benefits for early adopters.”