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The past two weeks of classics and world championships have made the playoffs clear. Movistar, BikeExchange and EF have all but confirmed their World Tour status, so now Cofidis and Archea, tied on points, look like the only teams to reach the Lotto, albeit a tough task for the Belgians. On the other hand, Israel-Premier Tech didn’t get a miracle and won’t be a World Tour team in 2023 if the UCI implements the relegation system.
The last two weeks
Contrary to our expectations, the difference between Lotto and Cofidis has increased to 893 points after the last two weeks and the difference is more than 1000 points from EF education – easypost. With only 8% of the 2022 points being distributed, Lotto’s over 1000 points in these last 3 weeks of the season is complicated. At least Caleb Ewan and Arnaud de Lee are in good form, but they both need to win or finish on the podium in the remaining races and complement that with more points from Campenaerts, Krone or De Boost. We must remember that Wellens is recovering from heart problems and Moniquet recently suffered a hand injury.
In this case, we updated our prediction model based on the expected calendars each team has at stake, their riders and 100,000 simulations. While the model predicts Israel’s draw at 99.98%, the probability of Lotto’s draw increases significantly to 80.52%. Archea maintains a no-growth probability of 11.49%, while Cofidis’ downside probability has been reduced to just 5.39%.
While Lotto and Cofidis will participate in all competitions until the end of the season, Archea will have a reduced calendar, increasing their chances of getting out of the top 18. The top 10 highest-scoring cyclists, Buhani and Quintana, have been injured since April and are awaiting legal claims at the Court of Arbitration for Sport. Therefore, you cannot cover such a wide calendar, moreover, you are rejected by many competitions that you want to participate in the coming weeks.
BikeExchange and EF have come out victorious from the last two weeks, thanks in particular to the World Championships. Matthews’ bronze in the road race brought 400 points to the bike extension, but the team added 170 more UCI points in the mixed relay with Matthews, Durbridge and Sobrero and 275 more in Groenewegen’s smaller races in Europe. Meanwhile, EF shined in the Italian classics against Chaves and Eking, but scored more than 400 points in Australia, with Bisseger fifth in the ITT (125 pts), gold in the TTT (100 pts) and Bettiol eighth in the road race (150 pts).
Without drivers in the World Championship, Cofidis also performed better than expected, led by Simone Consonni, winner of Paris-Chaun (125 points) and seventh in the Primus Classic (60 points), and ninth in the Giro della Toscana, Guillaume Martin (25 points) and third in the Copa del Rey. Sabatini (125 points). The commitment of Gila Martin, who competed in the Italian Classics only 3 days after the Canadian race, is impressive. He has had a busy season since January and is expected to compete in the remaining Italian Classics and the Japan Cup.
At the other end is Israel, whose leaders Fugelsang, Woods and Nizzolo continue to disappoint. With just 113 points in the last two weeks, the team has been relegated and is also likely to secure a spot on the World Tour calendar for next season. Without a guaranteed World Tour race, Fugelsang could break his contract with Israel, which runs until 2024, he told Danish publication BT.
“Yes, it could be. Or I can try to find something else. If we get relegated and I stay and do the small races and tour Rwanda, I can say, ‘You know what, I’ve had a good job.’ But let’s see what happens.”
Crashes and illnesses have once again put the brakes on Lotto Sudal’s comeback, and time is running out. After finishing second in Kampioenschap van Vlaanderen (85 points), Ewan missed GP d’Isbergues, Omloop van het Houtland and Paris-Chauny due to illness. In addition, a crash at the end of the Primus Classic (1.Pro) made De Lie, the favorite for the victory, lose 200 potential UCI points. And unfortunately the Pantani Memorial was canceled due to heavy rain, Crone could have made the top 10 for Lotto and Archea didn’t compete. Mathematically, they still have a chance of survival, but require a high degree of luck and an Archaea or Cophidis to break down.
In Lotto’s biggest rival Archea-Samsich, Frenchman Kevin Vauclin stood out in second place in Tour Luxembourg (165 pts), just a second away from victory. At the age of 21 and as a neo-professional, Vauquelin has already brought 624 UCI points to the team, certainly unexpected. With 10 first-place finishes in the French and Belgian .1 Classics, scoring 75 and 70 points, runners-up Hofstetter and Capiot helped close the gap with the relegation zone.
In the interactive graphic below, you can see which 10 drivers contribute points to the most vulnerable teams, including TotalEnergies, in the battle for the 2023 wild cards with Israel. By clicking on the group name, a graph will open. Driver of each team.
2023 wild cards
If the chance of a Lotto drop-off materializes, it would guarantee them at least one of the two wild cards on the 2023 World Tour calendar, with only a spread over the 2022 rankings. Lotto’s situation will be the same as Alpesin’s last two seasons, so relegation won’t be too dramatic for the Belgian side. Also, with fast drivers like Ewan and De Litte, it is common for Lotto to retain wild cards for subsequent seasons.
Another wild card is still in contention between TotalEnergies and Israel, with TotalEnergies holding a 979 UCI points advantage after Sagan finished seventh in Wollongong. Although it is almost down to 2022, Israel must continue to chase points to pass Total Energies by 2022. If they fail to do so, they could be out of the Giro, Tour and Vuelta in 2023, as it will be at the discretion of the organisers, who only have 2 wild cards in hand. The Giro and Vuelta are expected to invite their two national teams, while the Tour will invite B&B, but Total Energies will be confirmed to be fit for sport, so another invitation could be offered to a non-French team. Therefore, Israel will compete with Uno-X and Uskaltel-Uskadi for the 2023 tournament invitation.
Next 2 weeks | September 26 – October 9
After a few quiet days, Fall Classics action returns on Thursday the 29th. We will have 14 races in total, with the Monument of Lombardia and 6 ProSeries classics distributing the most points. In the table below, you can see the teams participating in each tournament, excluding Movistar, adding Danu and Total Energies, which covers most of the remaining contentions for the 2023 wild cards with Israel.
Competitions:
- CRO Competition (2.1, 27/09 – 02/10)
- Agostoni Cup (1.1, 29/09)
- Giro del Emilia (1.Pro, 01/10)
- Venda Tour (1.1, 02/10)
- Famen Arden Classic (1.1, 02/10)
- Sparkasse Munsterland Giro (1.Pro, 03/10)
- Bernocchi Cup (1.Pro, 03/10)
- Tree Valley Varesin (1.Pro, 04/10)
- Binche – Chimay – Binche (1.1, 04/10)
- Paris – Bourges (1.1, 06/10)
- Great Piedmont (1.Pro, 06/10)
- Lombardy (1.UWT, 08/10)
- Paris – Tours (1.Pro, 09/10)
- Kempen Classic (1.1, 09/10)
As mentioned, Lotto divides Ewan and De Li into flat classics, although it is not easy to complete the puzzle to maximize points. The Coppa Bernocchi (1.Pro) and Gran Piemonte (1.Pro) in Italy could also end in a sprint, but Ewan is expected to ride the same in the Sparkason Munsterland Giro (1.Pro) and Paris-Bourges (1.1). Days, De Lie competes only in Belgium and French. Perhaps De Buyst should cover those two Italian classics, although De Liège is not a great lead-out man. Also, Paris – tours with Strato could suit Campenaerts and Gilbert well in the final race of his professional career.
To counter Lotton’s pressure, Archaea relied on Barguille, Gesbert, Vauculin for the Italian classics, and Hofstetter, Capiot, Maclay, Louvel, and Swift for the French and Belgian classics. If you can regularly participate in the top 10 contests you have participated in, you can hold back the lotto. In any case, Arcaia should come away from Lombardia and Paris-Tours weekend with a wide lead (at least 400 points or more) in the Lotto to be comfortable as the Belgians travel to Langkawi and Japan in the final week. season, Archaea is expected not to fly to Asia.
Cofidis continues to be exploited by Italian classics Guillaume Martin, where Jesus Herrada joins them. In addition, with four riders (Coquard, Consonni, Walscheid and Allegaert) in the top 10, they will be able to cover all the classics in the next two weeks and race with several riders at the same time. The French team only misses the 2.1 CRO competition, which is not profitable in terms of points per race day with six stages.
BikeExchange and EF are functionally safe, but may need some extra points to ensure their durability. In this sense, BikeExchange will rely on Groenewegen’s consistency in the flat classics, while Simon Yates is expected to participate in the Italian classics. EF will take a very complete team in the Italian classics and like Lotto and Kofidis will travel to Langkawi and Japan in the last week of the season, so they should add several hundred points at the end of the season.
In the debate between TotalEnergies and Israel for the 2023 wild cards, Israel’s chances, Theuns and Woods, are regularly on the podium in the Italian classics, including Lombardia, and Nizzolo regains his strength in the sprints. Either way, Total should be able to defend his lead with points-scoring riders like Boasson Hagen, Van Gestel, Simon or Turgis.
We’ll be back with our next update on October 10 after the end of Il Lombardia.
Editor’s note: This article was written by Raoul Bankeri with contributions from editor Patrick Bro. The cover artwork is by Lowmans.
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