- Conducts war game analyzes of the conflict between the US and China over Taiwan.
- One of the analysts said that the US and Taiwan could succeed in defeating the Chinese invasion.
- However, both parties may suffer heavy losses. Up to 900 US warplanes could be destroyed.
The U.S. and Taiwan may be able to fend off a Chinese invasion, but the think tank’s analysis found that both sides would incur huge losses.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank, has been running war games to predict how such a conflict might unfold.
“The good news is that at the end of all the iterations so far, Taiwan will be autonomous,” Mark Kanchian, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Insider.
“The United States and Taiwan are generally successful in protecting the island from Chinese invasion, but the cost is very high – hundreds of aircraft, aircraft carriers and massive damage and destruction to Taiwan’s economy and China’s navy. Air Force.”
In one of the most desperate scenarios, 900 U.S. fighter and attack aircraft would be destroyed within four weeks, equivalent to half of the U.S. Air Force and Navy’s fighter jets, The Times of London reported.
But the US could suffer huge losses in a full-scale conflict with China, he said, adding that China as a whole would suffer more.
“I would say that in most cases, Chinese ships suffer because they are so vulnerable,” he said.
He also pointed out that they could lose more than 100 ships during an amphibious invasion.
War games are designed to simulate how conflicts play out. In the year In this imagined conflict that takes place in 2026, each side will retain only the military capabilities it has already demonstrated in real life.
The team has conducted 18 of the 22 games so far and plans to release the final report in December.
The game consists of two boards with a map of Western Pacific operations including Taiwan, Japan, China and counters that move on the board.
The team uses computer models and charts results based on historical experience to determine what will happen. Dice is used to add a random element.
They then move to a map specific to Taiwan, a land game where the Chinese land and Taiwan are trying to defend the island.
Kanchian is running a worst-case scenario yet, but the Wall Street Journal reports that he points to one of the games, which involves two pessimistic elements: The US is distracted by another crisis in the world, such as Ukraine. and Taiwan have been slow to respond due to Chinese intelligence operations and sabotage.
He said they plan to hold the Games with some even more pessimistic assumptions, including attacks on the Chinese mainland and Japan’s role.
Kanchian said CSIS would suggest some reforms to U.S. strategy that could deter China, such as buying more long-range missiles and building shelters in Guam and Japan to protect aircraft, since most aircraft are destroyed on the ground.
The dispute over Taiwan has raised tensions between the US and China, and some military analysts believe China could eventually invade the island.
For decades, China has been pressuring governments not to recognize Taiwan as a sovereign country. It has pledged to “unify” the self-governing island with the mainland by 2050.
The US has long struggled to strike a balance between supporting Taiwan and preventing war with China, but tensions have risen recently.
Earlier this month, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan’s capital, Taipei, despite repeated warnings from China not to.
China called the move a “heinous provocation” and said it would punish the democrat and her family, but experts said the response was largely within the standard playbook.
“We cannot allow the Chinese government to isolate Taiwan,” Pelosi defended the trip, telling NBC.
China has held military drills around Taiwan following Pelosi’s visit and said it will continue “training and war preparations,” The Guardian reported.
Congress of five members A delegation led by Democratic Sen. Ed Markey arrived in Taiwan on Sunday, less than two weeks after Pelosi’s visit, which has become increasingly tense with China.