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According to the Center for Gaming Research at the University of Nevada, the state’s sportsbooks will earn 5.7 cents for every dollar wagered on football in 2021.
Parlays, however, caused a windfall. 32.1 cents per dollarThis is why so much of sportsbooks’ advertising, advertising odds, and other marketing incentives revolve around parlays. DraftKings CEO Jason Robbins told attendees at the Goldman Sachs Travel and Leisure Conference in June that his company’s focus on parlays will continue to grow.
What we’re doing is trying to be smart enough to avoid or limit sharp action. [it] At least … and then we make sure we have a high parlay mix because people do that,” Robbins said.
Sportsbooks do well on parlays because each individual bet has to win in order to make money. Lose one and the entire bet is rated as a loss. The payout depends on how much money the odds are on each bet. If you have two bettors who are each +100 – bet $100 to win $100 – then the parlay has about a 25 percent chance of winning. If those bettors are each -110 ($110 to win $100), the odds improve to 27 percent, but the payout is slightly lower to reflect those odds.
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Where many bettors run into trouble is chasing big scores in multi-leg parlays that often feel like a sure thing. A six-leg parlay with odds of -233 per leg – showing a 70 percent chance of winning each leg – can feel like a relatively safe bet. In reality, the odds of winning are only about 12 percent.
And in single game parlays – an increasingly popular option where bettors have to choose multiple bets. in The same game – you can be penalized by choosing related bettors, which means that there is a good correlation between the bets, which are more likely to succeed.
Here is an example from this baseball season. Let’s pretend we want to create a one-game paraline on FanDuel for a June game between the New York Mets and the Milwaukee Brewers. At -110 odds we want to take over eight total runs. We also want to add Pete Alonso’s home run at +310 odds, giving us a single game with two underdogs paying +485.
But these two events are related to each other. More home runs typically mean more runs scored. Instead we changed it to the total bet of the race root Eight runs, also at -110, but save Alonso’s home run prop – gives us two. Unconnected Events in the same game – Although the odds for each bet are the same (+310 and -110), the return probability drops to +980. Considering the value of the two bets, the fair value of this parlay is around +680. In other words, the associated fee is underpaying litigants, while the unrelated fee is overpaying. Not all sportsbooks will charge you this way, so be sure to compare prices at different outlets.
A single game can have different rules even for the same bet. On DraftKings, for example, if you place a straight bet on a hitter in an MLB game, at least one plate appearance must be registered for the bet to be straight. If that same bet is part of a parlay of a game, the player only needs to look at the board. In other words, he can pinch hit for an at-bat later in the game and the throw is considered live, a clear disadvantage to the bidders.
There are also situations where the prices themselves differ for the same bet depending on whether it is used in a single game parlay. Here’s the exact same game offered on DraftKings as part of live bets (above) and as part of a single game (below). There are different prices for money line, run line and under total, even though they are the same bettors. (Not all differences are in a bad direction for the attackers.)
Then there are sportsbooks that “raise” the odds, many of which come through two or three-legged parlays. Caesars has offered to “raise” the two-legged parline this season – which would allow Bryce Harper and Jorge Soler to each hit a home run in a game – up to +1200, a juicy-sounding number. The same bet, however, can be had at +1846 odds using a single game without a boost on FanDuel. Sportsbooks, in other words, are selling a product – so don’t assume that their enthusiasm around special offers is necessarily of any value to punters.
Finally, beware of any sponsored parlays. These typically include a few favorites strung together to give the illusion of cutting short a winning bet; Obviously, that is far from the case. DraftKings A parlay is introduced A baseball season that includes a Houston Astros win (-180), an Atlanta Braves win (-280) and no runs in the first inning of the Colorado Rockies-Arizona Diamondbacks game (-125). The improved parlay offered +280 odds, but the fair-price – based on the Pinnacle sportsbook, after removing the vig – was +320. On paper, three bets at low odds – each one should be favored to win – looks like a promising 3-0 ticket, but the math (and reality) are very different. Even if you had three fantastic favorites at -250 odds each – which would represent a 71 per cent win rate per leg – you would still only have a 36 per cent chance of going 3-0.
Are parlays a big winner for the house? Absolutely. Does this mean you should avoid them completely? No. As with any bet, if you believe you have an edge, you should bet accordingly. If you believe you have an edge in multiple games, it makes sense to stack those together for an extra payout.
But with each round of betting, you enrich the house more than your own bankroll.
Photo by Lily Elke for The Washington Post.
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